DELMARVA FORECAST
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few strong, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 77°F. Normal low: 57°F.
Unsettled weather will be the order of business on Delmarva through the middle of next week.
As a disturbance ahead of a cold front moves over Delmarva Wednesday evening, we'll see on-and-off showers with the occasional thunderstorm. Rain will be most likely over the Maryland Midshore and Delaware, although showers and thunder will also be possible south. Strong storms are not expected, but some gusty downpours are possible in any storms. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the overnight before dissipating by sunrise Thursday
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire peninsula on Thursday as a cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and downpours. A tornado can't be ruled out. All of Delmarva is under a Level 1 "Marginal" Threat for severe weather Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely Thursday afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on-and-off on Friday.
Our weekend forecast is not looking as optimistic as we look ahead to the weekend, although it won't be a washout. An area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will keep up a southwesterly flow that will keep shower chances in the forecast through Sunday, although neither day will be a washout. Since the low that will cause this precipitation will not be a coastal low, winds shouldn't be too strong.
Then eyes turn to the tropics, where there are two tropical waves showing high chances of becoming organized tropical systems off the U.S. East Coast. A complicated weather pattern means that our guidance is still not showing any consistency in the forecast, but we will need to watch these systems closely for any direct East Coast effects. Timing would be sometime next week into the following week.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation near normal for September 30 - October 6.
In the Tropics: Hurricane "Gabrielle" is spinning angrily in the central Atlantic. It is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and continue on out to sea. On Delmarva, some high surf and dangerous rip currents could be possible later this week from "Gabrielle".
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea has a high, 80 percent chance of development in the next seven days, and a 70 percent chance in the next two days. The forecast track for this wave will bring it up to the Bahamas. Whatever becomes of this storm, there is a possibility it could affect the U.S. East Coast. We'll keep an eye on this system and its future development.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a high, 90 percent chance of becoming an organized tropical system in the next seven days, and a 90 percent chance in the next two days. It is not certain at this time if it will directly affect the U.S. East Coast.
The next two names on the Atlantic hurricane list are "Humberto" and "Imelda".
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.