DELMARVA FORECAST
Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. Some showers late. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday: Showers likely, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler and breezy. Highs in the mid 60s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cool. Highs in the mid 60s.
Saturday: Cloudy with showers and wind possible late. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain and wind possible. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Monday: Cloudy with rain and wind possible. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 72°F. Normal low: 51°F.
A cold front is approaching the northeast which will bring dramatically different weather for the second half of the week.
For Tuesday evening, conditions will be dry as skies become cloudy. Any significant shower activity should hold off until after midnight. It will be an unseasonably mild night, with lows only falling into the mid 60s.
Ahead of the cold front, expect on-and-off showers, with an embedded thunderstorm possible throughout the day, although we are not anticipating any strong or severe thunderstorms. Raincoats will likely be a good option as gusty winds will make umbrellas a little unwieldly. Winds from the southwest will shift to a northerly direction during the day, gusting to 25 mph or more at times.
As the front clears Delmarva, skies will quickly clear Wednesday evening, setting us up for a big contrast on Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny, but a gusty northeasterly wind will keep afternoon highs suppressed in the mid 60s through Friday.
We're keeping an eye on the forecast for this weekend. Confidence remains low, but is slowly increasing that a coastal low will affect Delmarva for at least part of the weekend. Guidance Tuesday afternoon is suggesting slowly deteriorating conditions on Saturday, with rain showers and gusty winds Sunday into Monday. Coastal flooding and beach erosion could be a problem with this storm. However, this event is still five to six days away, and we are still not confident in how the future Hurricane "Jerry" could interact with this storm, so watch this space for updates as we get a better handle on this forecast.
In the long range, temperatures are expected to average above normal, and precipitation near normal for October 14 - October 20.
In the Tropics: Tropical Storm "Jerry" has formed in the Atlantic. "Jerry" is forecast to become a hurricane by late Wednesday. The current forecast has the storm following a similar track to other deep Atlantic hurricanes, turning north and passing by Bermuda, and staying well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, "Jerry" could interact with a coastal storm forecast to develop this weekend, which could affect Delmarva, with gusty winds and some rain.
An area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has a low, 10 percent chance of development in the next seven days.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.