DELMARVA FORECAST
Friday night: A mix of rain and snow early, then clearing after midnight. Light slushy accumulation possible on grassy surfaces. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cold. Windy. Winds from the west gusting to 30 mph at times. Highs in the mid 30s. Wind chills in the mid 20s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early, then increasing clouds. Cold. Breezy. Highs in the mid 30s. Wind chills in the mid 20s.
Monday: Snow likely, with some rain mixing in at times. Several inches of snow likely. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Tuesday: Lingering snow showers early, then becoming mostly sunny. Cold. Windy. Highs in the low 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cold. Windy. Highs around 30°F.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 46°F. Normal low: 29°F.
Friday evening we'll get a little taste of wintry weather before a more significant winter storm on Monday.
As a clipper system swings across Delmarva Friday evening, we'll see rain that will mix with snow at times. The Friday evening commute could be a little slippery. We're not expecting significant accumulations of snow, but some slushy snow could accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces, primarily on the Midshore and in Delaware.
The rain/snow mix will end by late evening Friday as temperatures fall into the mid 20s, which could make for icy roads Friday night into Saturday morning.
Arctic high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic for the weekend. Skies will mainly be sunny on Saturday with increasing clouds on Sunday. Temperatures will be cold, only reaching the mid 30s, with overnight lows falling into the upper teens and low 20s. A gusty wind will make it feel like the 20s in the afternoons.
Then we get into our main event winter storm on Monday.
Confidence is very high that we will see wintry weather on Delmarva starting late Sunday night and continuing through Monday before ending late Monday night or Tuesday morning.
We are also growing more confident that parts of Delmarva will see at least 3 to 5 inches of snow.
Our guidance is suggesting that there will be band of heaviest snow that will stretch from east to west, and Delmarva is included in nearly all variations of the guidance.
Where we are not very confident is where that band of heaviest snow will set up, and just how many inches of snow will fall. This lack of confidence is because this storm is currently in the western United States, and as little as a 50 mile change in its track east can move that band of heaviest snow anywhere from the Lower Eastern Shore to as far north as Philadelphia. We are also seeing that surface temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s Monday afternoon, which means some rain could mix in with the snow, which could significantly suppress snow accumulations. A change of just one to two degrees colder or warmer can also significantly increase or decrease accumulations.
So for now, we're thinking that the band of heaviest snow is most likely to bring the heaviest snow to the Maryland Midshore and Delaware, where 4 to 8 inches of snow or more are possible. The Lower Eastern Shore could see 2 to 4 inches, with even lower amounts as you head down into the Eastern Shore of Virginia.
As we are still 48 to 72 hours away from this winter weather event, changes are still possible to this forecast, so watch this space for updates throughout the weekend as the storm gets closer and we continue to refine our snowfall predictions and placement of the heaviest snow.
Then winter weather doesn't end. Starting Tuesday, we'll have mostly sunny skies, but temperatures will be cold for th rest of the week with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 40s and overnight lows in the teens and 20s.
