DELMARVA FORECAST
Tuesday night: Snow, heavy at times in the evening, then mixing with sleet and rain late. Highest snow accumulations in Central Delmarva. Temperatures steady around 32°F. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Wednesday: On-and-off rain throughout the day, with some wintry mix possible in the morning. Highs in the low 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Thursday: Rain likely in the morning, then mostly cloudy. Mild. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the low 40s.
Saturday: Rain in the afternoon and evening. Highs near 50°F. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Rain likely. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the upper 30s.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 47°F. Normal low: 29°F.
Wintry weather has arrived on Delmarva.
Expect snow, heavy at times Tuesday evening. Snow will mix with rain early over the Eastern Shore of Virginia.
With temperatures Tuesday evening through the overnight holding steady at right about 32°F, there is much uncertainty in how much snow will accumulate. This will be a heavy, wet snow that will struggle to accumulate, however with snowfall rates of 1" or more per hour, the sheer volume of snow might be enough to overtake the compression due to the weight of snow. There are also increasing signals that temperatures might be a bit warmer higher up in the atmosphere, causing more sleet will mix with snow over Central Delmarva, which will also suppress snow accumulations. We're still thinking the highest accumulations will be over Central Delmarva, with 6 to 8 inches of snow before the changeover to rain, but we're focusing more on the lower end of these ranges given the marginal temperatures at the surface.
Given how wet and heavy this snow is, it will be important to be careful shoveling this snow. It's a good idea to shovel several times to avoid having to lift too much wet, heavy snow.
Snow will gradually change over to rain overnight.
By Wednesday morning, all snow is expected to have changed over to rain, and rain is likely on-and-off throughout the day, however as temperatures only slowly rise through the 30s, I don't want to rule out some wintry mix at times, especially on the Midshore and Delaware in the morning.
A second low pressure system will approach Wednesday night, but with warmer temperatures expected, we're expecting this system to be all rain. Rain could be heavy at times Wednesday night before ending Thursday morning. Any snow from Tuesday night won't stick around long; highs Thursday will reach the mid 50s.
Friday will be a mostly sunny, but chilly, day with highs in the low 40s.
Then more welcome rain returns for much of the weekend, with seasonable highs Saturday in the upper 40s, and warm highs Sunday in the low 60s.
After a cold front, Monday will be mostly sunny, but much cooler, in the upper 30s.